Predictions for 2009

Since Macworld is this Tuesday, and some of my predictions involve Apple, I might as well get this list out ASAP.

• Apple will produce neither a netbook nor a tablet device this year, or likely any year. They will, however, produce a smaller and cheaper iPhone. This 4GB model will be called the iPhone Nano, or iPhone Mini and sell for under $150. They will release it to carriers other than AT&T. AT&T signed an exclusivity deal worth millions to be the only carrier with the iPhone. Apple will claim that the deal was only for the iPhone, and that this new model is something different. AT&T will sue, but the lawsuit won't resolve for some time. Apple will offer CDMA prototypes, but neither Sprint nor Verizon will be interested. Sprint and Verizon are still trying to market their own music stores, and they will not want the competition from iTunes.
  
  
• Now that Apple has 10% of the total PC market, and 14% of the consumer market, they will be hit by their first genuine virus this year. Since the iPhone also runs a variant of OSX, it might be affected too. The bug will be nasty enough for Apple to start taking security seriously. Remember that hacking challenge last year? The Apple computer was the first to be hacked and exploited. Apple has been able to avoid spyware, trojans and viruses because of they lack the numbers to make such work profitable. That's starting to change.
  
  
• Cerebus will realize that the only way to turn a profit with Chrysler is to part it out. Unfortunately for them, the only part that's remotely interesting is Jeep. Jeep will be sold to either Mercedes, because they share so many parts, or to a company needing a decent Truck/SUV platform... think Honda, Hyundai or Tata. The rest of the company will be sold off for intellectual property (i.e. the hemi engine) but no one will actually make another Dodge car again. The exception being the Dodge Viper. The rights to which will be purchased by a small specialty company like Shelby or Saleen. They'll start making the Viper again sometime in 2012.
  
  
• Comcast will release a new DVR using technology "stolen" from TiVo. Comcast and TiVo have been partnered for almost two years now, and they've only had limited test releases in small markets. It's not moving forward, and I believe it's because Comcast is buying time. TiVo will sue Comcast for the stolen IP, and they might win... sometime in 2011. That is, if they're still in business.
  
  
• There will be at least a dozen phones running Google's Android software by the end of the year. Unfortunately they'll all suck. A smartphone platform which doesn't support a To-Do list? It's as if Google employees have never worked in an office which uses Exchange. The real area where Android could take off is in budget phones, such as the Motorola RAZR, where the carriers can save money by using a "free" OS. However in those cases the devices will still suffer by having a poor radio stack, since Google wrote code for supporting the phones in as a secondary priority to writing an OS which supports Google web apps.
  
  
• The US will be put into a precarious position when either the Iraqi or Afghani government comes out in support of Palastine and offers military aide against Isreal. But this won't be the true test of Obama's leadership in the first year. Instead it'll come later this summer when the gang war along the US/Mexico border escalates. The Mexican army, which is reportedly corrupt, will be caught crossing the US border and attacking US citizens (albeit criminal ones).
  
  
• Obama will pick a "nobody" for his CTO. It won't be Larry Lessig, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs or The Woz. Probably someone who was a VP for HP or IBM. The CTO will likely be someone who supports the RIAA/MPAA. There will be no patent reform under this CTO, and we'll continue to see lawsuits over ideas that should have never been patented in the first place.
  
  
• Steve Balmer will announce his retirement in 5 years. He won't announce his successor for another three years. The real story will be that the board forced him to retire. Under his leadership, Microsoft has lost marketshare for the first time in it's existence. The failure to procure a deal with Yahoo highlights the lack of vision and the lack of ability that Balmer possesses.
  
  
• A Pushing Daisies movie will be announced, probably in a direct-to-video product. The movie will wrap up any loose ties left in the series that ABC has foolishly decided to cancel.
  
  
• Despite losing millions on the PS3, Sony will continue to push it's failed console onto the marketplace. They will not lower the price, and they will not have a "killer app". They'll release some sort of Wii like controller, which will be overly expensive and not be supported by anything more than 2 games.... both of which will not be fun to play. Many former Playstation exclusives will start to jump ship to the 360 and Wii. The only place on Earth where the PS3 will sell well is in Japan, and it will still sell fewer consoles than the Wii. It will also lose the title of "best bluray player" this year.
  

There you have it. Ten fresh predictions for the new year. I'll report back on this in 2010 to see how well I scored.

Update: I have a bonus prediction... I predict that the average price of gas in the US as tracked by AAA will not exceed $3 per gallon this year.